Factors Predicting Mortality Rate within 30 Days of Patients Presenting with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding at NongKhai Hospital

Abstract

Background: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common emergency in medical practice. According to statistics from NongKhai Hospital for the period 2016 to 2020, the mortality rate was 5.0%. Consequently, inadequate or delayed initial assessment and treatment can significantly increase the mortality rate. Objective: To study (1) factors predicting mortality rate within 30 days of patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding at NongKhai Hospital. (2) the incidence and causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. This retrospective descriptive study collects data from the medical records of patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding at NongKhai Hospital for 3 years from 1 October 2018 to 30 September 2021. The factors predicting mortality rate within 30 days of patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding at NongKhai Hospital were analyzed using Univariate analysis and only statistically significant factors (p<0.05) were further analyzed using multiple logistic regression. Results: A total of 780 eligible patients were included in this study with 37 patients having succumbed resulting in a mortality rate of 4.7%. The factors predicting mortality rate within 30 days of patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding at NongKhai Hospital include male gender, liver cirrhosis, corticosteroid use, INR greater than 1.5, PTT greater than 35 seconds, AST greater than 5 times the normal value, hospital stay longer than 7 days, rebleeding within 48 hours, and complications (p<0.05). Conclusion and recommendations: Patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding along with the aforementioned risk factors should be closely monitored and surveillance to reduce the risk of complications and in-hospital as well as post-discharge mortality.