The model development on prediction and surveillance system from landfill fire emergency crisis

Abstract

This study on developing a forecasting and risk assessment system for landfill fires, enhancing surveillance to reduce public health risks, aims to: 1. Develop a forecasting and risk assessment system; 2. Identify risk factors linked to landfill fires; and 3. Develop a model and mechanism for the forecasting and risk assessment system. The research was conducted as an action research project in four phases: Phase 1: Analyzing the landfill fire problem; Phase 2: Developing the forecasting system; Phase 3: Piloting the system; and Phase 4: Evaluating the system and gathering feedback. The study was conducted between September 2023 and September 2025. Statistical analysis included descriptive statistics, frequency distribution, percentages, means, content analysis, and thematic analysis.

The results showed that: Phase 1 identified risk factors for landfill fires as: 1. Physical factors and landfill management; and 2. Factors related to landfill regulation and control. Phase 2 involved developing a landfill fire forecasting system using MS Excel and designing a web application. Phase 3 involved piloting the landfill fire risk forecasting system and surveying landfill fire risk data for local administrative organizations, with suggestions for further tool development. The research was conducted in five phases: Phase 1 involved five stages: Phase 1: 1) Questions in the risk assessment tool; Phase 2: Interpretation of results after assessment; Phase 3: Tools or systems used; Phase 4: Training and capacity building for staff; and Phase 5: Coordination and management after using the risk assessment tool. Phase 2 involved focus group discussions in four provinces (Pathum Thani, Nakhon Pathom, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, and Prachuap Khiri Khan). The main causes of landfill fires were identified as stemming from environmental factors conducive to ignition, such as dryness and highly flammable waste, as well as human behavior, such as intentionally burning waste or unintentionally disposing of flammable materials. Many landfills lack access control systems, fences, sanitary burial practices, and continuous management. This aligns with literature reviews and concepts related to waste management and health in emergencies, particularly regarding fires caused by the accumulation of methane gas and chemical reactions in waste piles (which occur naturally), as well as illegal burning by outsiders. Phase 3 involved feedback and consultation, including presentations of research findings, basic knowledge about landfill fires, the development of a system for predicting and assessing landfill fire risk, and practical training in using the system. Enhance surveillance to reduce public health risks.