The study of factors associated with the occurrence of dengue epidemics in Thailand, 2022-2023

Abstract

This research is a retrospective descriptive study aiming to investigate the relationship between average rainfall, relative humidity, average temperature, container index (CI), and outbreak areas with dengue incidence over one month following the collection of climates, larva survey, and outbreak areas information. Poisson regression was used to analyze the associations between average rainfall, relative humidity, average temperature, container index (CI), and outbreak areas with dengue incidence, while controlling for confounding variables (Mid-year population). Data are presented as the Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

The results indicated that factors associated with dengue incidence included average rainfall (IRR = 1.021, p-value < 0.001, 95% CI = 1.017-1.025), relative humidity (IRR = 1.046, p-value < 0.001, 95% CI = 1.043-1.050), average temperature (IRR = 1.191, p-value < 0.001, 95% CI = 1.184-1.199), container index (CI) (IRR = 1.029, p-value < 0.001, 95% CI = 1.026-1.031), and epidemic area (IRR = 2.215, p-value < 0.001, 95% CI = 2.219-2.252).

Based on these results, average rainfall, relative humidity, average temperature, container index (CI), and outbreak areas should be incorporated into models for analyzing and predicting areas at risk for dengue fever outbreaks in the future.