Development of Transmission Models of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in relation to Climate and Landscape Changes in Tourism and Urbanized Areas of Phuket Province

Abstract

This research aimed to 1) analyze factors that influence the population dynamics of Aedes vectors 2) create models for the spread of dengue fever. The study design was analytical observation research, quasi-experimental study. The study samples consisted of 740 households in urban and tourism areas from 6 study sites of 3 districts of Phuket Province [Mueang District: 1) Taladyai/Taladnua Sub-district, Taladyai community 120 Households (HHs) 2) Rawai Sub-district, Ban Taimai community 123 HHs Kathu District: 3) Pathong Sub-district, Bannanai community 121 HHs 4) Kamala Sub-district, Bannorkle Sub-district, 121 HHs Talang District: 5) Chuengtale Sub-district, Bangtaonork community 126 HHs 6) Sakoo Sub-district, Banbangmalao community 129 HHs]. A total of 6 study sites, which were urban and tourism areas, were selected using two criteria, including 1) landscape information and building styles, land use and social economic conditions 2) the boundaries of the study area which were related to the boundaries of the administrative area. The study was carried out during 2018 – 2019. Research results indicated that factors regarding landscape, geography and environmental conditions of buildings affected the number and abundance of Aedes mosquitoes and the emergence of dengue fever. The results of classifying and analyzing land use characteristics of Phuket Province from aerial or satellite imagery data could be summarized into 9 main categories: mostly agriculture, followed by forest, urban area, resort, golf court, sea & beach, commercial area, water body and livestock, respectively. The analysis results of the relationship between the dengue incidence and the topographic factors in the area of mean elevation from the sea concluded that almost all patients were in the altitude zone not exceeding 100 meters, consistent with the slope type topography, mostly found in flat areas. While the relationship between the dengue incidence and the climatic factor regarding total annual rainfall was found to be in the positive direction; areas in the south mostly appeared in the zones of Mueang and Kathu Districts showed high rainfall values and decreased when the position moved to the north, namely Thalang District. As for the number of dengue fever patients, when classified by district, it was found that Mueang Phuket District had the highest number of patients every year. Findings from this research have important implications for surveillance, prevention, and early control of dengue fever and can be applied to develop effective and sustainable models and approaches for integrated vector-borne disease management.